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postheadericon Is Las Vegas Ready for a Comeback?

 

When will the recession be over in Las Vegas?

Is Las Vegas ready to make a comeback?

After nearly a two year gaming slump, the city’s tourism numbers are beginning to climb.  Doe the improved gaming and tourism numbers mean Las Vegas has begun to rebound from the recession?  Gaming and sales tax make up nearly 2/3rds of the state’s revenue. Revenue was up in November 2009 by almost 28% yet convention attendance was down 13% from November of last year.  

In 2009, the sale of homes, condos and townhomes totaled 46,879 compared to 28,618 the year before.  Home prices have not stabilized yet and the median home price fell over 22% even while inventory of homes on the market declined 11%. The Las Vegas commercial market is still viewed as being very distressed.  The market is going to have to work thru existing inventory before any new construction is considered and that could be not until the year 2011.  The commercial market is going through a period of re-pricing. The floor in pricing won’t be seen until there are more transactions.  The buying and selling market are pretty much at a standstill wile the rental market is still negotiating downward.  It is expected that the capital market are going to have to expand and vacancies are going to have to be cut before lenders are going to view Las Vegas as a market they once again want to lend in.  With over $80 billion dollars in commercial mortgage backed securities reaching maturity in the next 18 months, the last thing lenders want to do is extend their position in Vegas until this mess has had a chance to work itself  thru. 

Is now the time to buy?  For financially well positioned buyers and all cash buyers, the Las Vegas market is a wealth of opportunity as Las Vegas has  much better recovery prospects than other regions of the United States, particularly the Midwest and the Northeast.   Conventions are being steadily booked, strip hotels are near full and with no new construction being developed, it should be a short time before Vegas is back on top and in full recovery mode.

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